Climate Change and Impacts Downscaling Workshop
Some really interesting talks today at the Climate Change and Impacts Downscaling Workshop organized by Michael Mann, Jenni Evans, Jose Fuentes, and Matt Thomas. I felt a bit like a fish out of water, having no really legitimate claims to work on climate. But ultimately, we found a lot of common ground on the challenges of modeling fine-scale dynamics with information that often comes aggregated at a much higher scale -- e.g. measles transmission dynamics at the local scale when demographic rates and vaccination coverage is only available at the national scale. The climate folks have also done a really nice job of integrating multiple competing models for forecasting -- something that I think could be used to greater effect in public health to assess alternative management options in the face of model uncertainty.